Don't forget the failures

"Mark Zuckerberg, Steve Jobs, and Bill Gates quit school and became billionaires. Don’t waste your time in school. Drop out, and you will be a billionaire”.

“Look at this old man. He is a chain smoker and drinks daily. It’s good to smoke and drink daily, as you will live long.”

“Look at all these start-ups. Their founders are successful. Just start a company. You’ll be successful”.

I’m sure you’ve heard people speak like this. They’re classic examples of the survivorship bias.

Survivorship bias is a mistake in our thinking (cognitive bias). It is dangerous, as it’s like driving with dirty glasses—it twists how you see the world. It hides the failures that are important in the journey to success.

And if your thinking is wrong, you will face problems.

If I listen to the earlier statements, I should be a school dropout who is a chain smoker and drunkard.

Why does this happen?

1. The media.

   We all want to see the ultra-rich, the successful, and their lifestyles. Do you want to read the biography of someone who went bankrupt? This focus on success changes our perception of reality.

2. Availability.

   Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter Powerful media companies. All these belong to one country. When I consume information online, chances are that I read what is presented by one of these companies. What about the stories from the rest of the world?

3. Correlation and causation

   Just because Steve Jobs dropped out doesn’t mean this made him successful. There are other factors that we need to study.

4. Hope.

   We always look for inspiration and try not to be demotivated by failures. A change in mindset helps when each failure can be the stepping stone to success.

How to avoid Survivorship bias

1. The first step is awareness.

   If you understand what survivorship bias is, you can recognize and avoid it.

2. Check for other explanations.

   Did Steve Jobs and others succeed because they dropped out or because they had an insane work ethic, a grand vision to create the future, and were also brilliant thinkers?

   How many smokers and drinkers live to an old age?

3. Question: What are you not seeing?

   When you see an interview with Mark Zuckerberg, think about how many startups fail (spoiler: 90% of them fail).

4. Understand the basics of statistics.

   Learn about sample size and the bell curve. Ask yourself,

   What is the population of the country?

   How many people smoke and drink?

   What is the average lifespan?

5. Listen to those with whom you disagree.

   When you’re open-minded enough to listen to what they’re saying, you might see something obvious that you’re missing.

I hope this post helps you understand what survivorship bias is. I hope it helps you become a better thinker.

If you found this helpful, share it with someone who will benefit.

Further reading

• Survivorship Bias: The Tale of Forgotten Failures.

• Survivorship Bias Explained: 4 Examples of Survivor Bias.